STILL A GRIM PICTURE - AT 7:58 P.M. ET:  Despite all the cheerleading that's going on, the American economy continues to shed jobs.  That's the most important human story in an economic downturn.  When we think of the great Depression, that's what we think of - the long lines of the unemployed.  From Fox Business:

A private-sector jobs report showed that employers shed hundreds of thousands of jobs during the month of July, but the pace of the job losses slowed to its best pace since the economic collapse in October last year.

According to Macroeconomic Advisers, the ADP (ADP: 37.72, -0.21, -0.55%) private-sector jobs report indicated that private employers cut 371,000 jobs during the month of July, more than the 350,000-loss that was expected by economists.

However the 371,000 loss is better than the 473,000 jobs lost in the previous month. It's the best number by ADP since the Lehman bankruptcy disrupted the economy in the second half of 2008.

COMMENT:  The fact that the pace of job loss is slowing may be interesting, but it's not predictive of anything.  It's like the saying that the Titanic sank more slowly in the second hour after hitting the iceberg than in the first.  Any significant job loss, extended over many months, is catastrophic.  Only gains in employment are acceptable.

Let's say we lose "only" 100,000 jobs a month, much less than a third of last month's number, but it goes on for three years.  That's more than three and a half million jobs.

So don't be impressed by losses that are "slowing."  We have a way to go.

August 5, 2009